After betting on solar energy in 2016 with the launch of the Noor project in Ouarzazate—the world’s largest concentrated solar power (CSP) plant—the kingdom is preparing to take on a new energy challenge: green hydrogen. However, unlike the hybrid financial framework of the time, which involved the state (via MASEN, the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy), international institutions, and private partners, the private sector is no longer merely a partner; it is now the project owner. The state, for its part, reserves the role of architect.
Same ambition, new approch
Indeed, one year after the publication of Morocco’s Offer, five private investors have been selected to develop six projects in the country’s south, representing a total investment of 319 billion dirhams.
The first consortium, ORNX, comprising American Ortus, Spanish Acciona, and German Nordex, will focus on ammonia production. The second consortium combines Emirati Taqa and Spanish Cepsa, with projects targeting ammonia and industrial fuel production. The third contender is Moroccan company Nareva, which will invest in ammonia, industrial fuels, and green steel production. A fourth consortium, made up of Chinese firms UEG and China Three Gorges, will also concentrate on ammonia production, as will Saudi company ACWA Power, selected for a similar project.
“The idea is not to create a hydrogen sector on life support. We anticipate the needs, prepare the groundwork, but it is the investors who take the financial risk”
Thus, Morocco’s new model for developing the hydrogen sector rests on a three-part framework: mobilizing renewable energy, creating an incentive framework, and attracting international industrial players. This strategic choice is primarily driven by the massive capital requirements needed to develop the sector. Producing green hydrogen at scale demands heavy investments in complex infrastructure: solar and wind farms, electrolyzers, conversion units (for ammonia or synthetic fuels), transport networks, and port facilities for export.
By entrusting these projects to the private sector, the state avoids bearing the financial burden of this transition alone while accelerating industrial deployment. “The idea is not to create a sector on life support. We anticipate the needs, prepare the groundwork, but it is the investors who take the financial risk. And if they are doing so, it’s because they clearly perceive the economic viability of the sector and the major opportunity it represents,” Badr Ikken, Associate Director of the energy transition consultancy Gi2, explains to TelQuel.
The prerequisites
This approach, praised for its budgetary rigor, also has its limits. Only projects with near-immediate profitability currently find takers. This is the case for the green ammonia sector, intended to supply an already existing local industry (the nitrogen fertilizer market), with mature technologies and a specific commitment from the OCP Group. For the rest, much remains to be done. The pipelines, which will be essential for transporting hydrogen to Europe via intercontinental corridors, have yet to be built. Their implementation is a prerequisite for achieving a competitive export scale.
Similarly, CO₂ capture technologies remain costly today, yet they are essential for producing synthetic fuels like methanol, kerosene, or synthetic diesel. These fuels, made from green hydrogen combined with captured CO₂, will be in demand in high-emission sectors like aviation and maritime. However, export markets for these fuels will only become truly dynamic starting in 2030, when the European Union begins imposing sustainable fuel quotas in aviation, according to the former director of the Solar Energy and New Energies Research Institute (IRESEN).
According to projections from the German research center Fraunhofer ISI, Morocco could capture 2% to 4% of global green hydrogen demand by 2030, provided it achieves 59% renewable energy in its energy mix and develops 9 GW of dedicated capacity for green hydrogen and its derivatives. The total investment required to meet this goal is estimated at 319 billion dirhams. Beyond 2035, this share could grow further, positioning Morocco as a key player in the global hydrogen landscape.
But this scenario depends on a set of technical, political, and financial prerequisites. It also assumes rapid acceleration of international cooperation. The trade of green hydrogen and its derivatives will primarily be structured regionally, between producer-exporter countries and major consumer-importer countries. The energy corridor between North Africa and Europe is identified as the most promising. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), its potential could reach 662 TWh for green hydrogen (equivalent to 20 million tons) and 446 TWh for green ammonia (about 86 million tons).
This potential is grounded in undeniable strengths. Morocco boasts some of the world’s best solar and wind resources, with capacity factors exceeding 60% in some regions. The cost of green electricity production reflects this: currently estimated at 0.20 dirhams/kWh, one of the lowest rates globally. Land availability is another lever: one million hectares have been identified for hosting projects, with 300,000 already ready. “This avoids lengthy permitting procedures, unlike in other countries. Timelines are shortened, which attracts investors,” emphasizes Badr Ikken.
The challenge of local value added
By relying on international consortiums, Morocco is betting on efficiency and economic viability. But this also raises the question of local value capture: What share of these projects will truly benefit the national economy? Could Morocco risk confining itself to the role of a green raw material exporter, without lasting benefits for its regions?
For Badr Ikken, the challenge is precisely to avoid this trap: “The goal isn’t just to export ammonia or methanol. These projects must become catalysts for a local industrial fabric and generate activity and jobs in the regions.”
Because beyond volumes of green electricity or megatons of exported hydrogen, Morocco’s success hinges on its ability to structure a sustainable, inclusive, and sovereign development model. For Badr Ikken, of the 319 billion dirhams in investments announced to date, estimates suggest a realistic local integration of around 37%. This represents nearly 118 billion dirhams injected directly into the national economy.
But this local integration cannot be limited to construction projects or logistical services. Sooner or later, it must translate into genuine industrial integration if Morocco hopes to maximize economic returns and control long-term costs.
According to Saïd Guemra, an energy management consultant-expert, estimates of Morocco’s potential range between 9 and 25 million tons of hydrogen per year by 2050, equivalent to 200 to 550 GW of installed capacity, depending on whether Morocco captures 1.6% or 4.3% of global demand. However, such volumes would require massive quantities of equipment: up to 77,000 wind turbines, 231,000 blades, or 55,000 electrolyzers—under the most ambitious scenarios. “Importing all these components would pose a major logistical and environmental challenge, not to mention the cost. For example, a single ship can only transport nine blades, with a significant carbon footprint,” he notes.
Therefore, local production of these components is no longer optional but a necessity. Strong industrial integration—including the manufacturing of wind turbines, photovoltaic cells, electrolyzers, and conversion units—would reduce logistical dependence, create an economic multiplier effect, and position Morocco as a full-fledged productive player in the global green hydrogen supply chain. It would also constitute the country’s second major structural advantage, after its abundant and competitive renewable resources.
Written in French by Safae Hadri, edited in English by Eric Nielson
